A Cognitive Model of an Epistemic Community: Mapping the Dynamics of Shallow Lake Ecosystems

We used fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to develop a generic shallow lake ecosystem model by augmenting the individual cognitive maps drawn by 8 scientists working in the area of shallow lake ecology. We calculated graph theoretical indices of the individual cognitive maps and the collective cognitive map produced by augmentation. The graph theoretical indices revealed internal cycles showing non-linear dynamics in the shallow lake ecosystem. The ecological processes were organized democratically without a top-down hierarchical structure. The steady state condition of the generic model was a characteristic turbid shallow lake ecosystem since there were no dynamic environmental changes that could cause shifts between a turbid and a clearwater state, and the generic model indicated that only a dynamic disturbance regime could maintain the clearwater state. The model developed herein captured the empirical behavior of shallow lakes, and contained the basic model of the Alternative Stable States Theory. In addition, our model expanded the basic model by quantifying the relative effects of connections and by extending it. In our expanded model we ran 4 simulations: harvesting submerged plants, nutrient reduction, fish removal without nutrient reduction, and biomanipulation. Only biomanipulation, which included fish removal and nutrient reduction, had the potential to shift the turbid state into clearwater state. The structure and relationships in the generic model as well as the outcomes of the management simulations were supported by actual field studies in shallow lake ecosystems. Thus, fuzzy cognitive mapping methodology enabled us to understand the complex structure of shallow lake ecosystems as a whole and obtain a valid generic model based on tacit knowledge of experts in the field.Comment: 24 pages, 5 Figure

Big data-driven fuzzy cognitive map for prioritising IT service procurement in the public sector

YesThe prevalence of big data is starting to spread across the public and private sectors however, an impediment to its widespread adoption orientates around a lack of appropriate big data analytics (BDA) and resulting skills to exploit the full potential of big data availability. In this paper, we propose a novel BDA to contribute towards this void, using a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) approach that will enhance decision-making thus prioritising IT service procurement in the public sector. This is achieved through the development of decision models that capture the strengths of both data analytics and the established intuitive qualitative approach. By taking advantages of both data analytics and FCM, the proposed approach captures the strength of data-driven decision-making and intuitive model-driven decision modelling. This approach is then validated through a decision-making case regarding IT service procurement in public sector, which is the fundamental step of IT infrastructure supply for publics in a regional government in the Russia federation. The analysis result for the given decision-making problem is then evaluated by decision makers and e-government expertise to confirm the applicability of the proposed BDA. In doing so, demonstrating the value of this approach in contributing towards robust public decision-making regarding IT service procurement.EU FP7 project Policy Compass (Project No. 612133

Range of the Greater Flamingo, Phoenicopterus roseus, metapopulation in the Mediterranean: New insights from Turkey

Metapopulation conservation should rely on a flyway approach aiming at assessing the spatial range of metapopulations by estimating the level of exchanges among local populations. In the western Mediterranean, Greater Flamingos have been shown to constitute a metapopulation with natal and breeding dispersal among colonies. In this paper, we examine whether this metapopulation reaches Turkey using a band-resighting study. Our results are the first evidence of natal and breeding dispersal from the western Mediterranean to Turkey, and suggest that the Gediz Delta, one of the two Turkish breeding colonies, can play a significant role in the recruitment of flamingos from the western Mediterranean. In 2003 and 2004, breeders of western Mediterranean origin accounted for more than 1.2 and 1.9% of the estimated breeding population of the Gediz Delta, respectively. Our observations also indicate that the western Mediterranean and Southwest Asia may constitute two sets of populations, which overlap in Turkey. Finally, the resightings of flamingos banded in Turkey show that post-fledging dispersal from Turkey reaches both the eastern and western Mediterranean wetlands. Future data on the natal and breeding dispersal of flamingos born in Turkey could clarify further the connection between Turkey and the western Mediterranean metapopulation. © Dt. Ornithologen-Gesellschaft e.V. 2007.Peer Reviewe

Environmental and individual correlates of dispersal in Greater Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber roseus).

Peer Reviewe

An update of the greater flamingo Phoenicopterus roseus in Turkey

Peer Reviewe

The use of fuzzy cognitive maps for evaluating the reuse project of military barracks in northern Italy

Cities are complex systems and their changing are continuous. The evolution strictly depends on the relationships among the different aspects which compose the same structure, such as social, economic, political, environmental, historical aspects. The consideration of the complexity, the heterogeneity and reciprocal influences of these different elements becomes fundamental in urban regeneration projects that are characterized by many interconnected elements. Starting from a real project in the city of Pinerolo (Italy), the paper aims to investigate the potentiality of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to represent the complexity of urban transformation processes, paying particular attention to the possibility of analyzing different scenarios simulatio

The Relevance of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping Approaches for Assessing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience in Social–Ecological Systems

Part 12: First Workshop on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Theory and Applications (FCMTA 2013)International audienceSocial–Ecological Systems (SES) are complex due to uncertainty related to their nature and their functions. In these systems, decision-making processes and practices of managers are often value-laden and subjective, dominated by their world-views and their own knowledge. People’s knowledge are central in building their adaptive capacity but are seldom taken into account by traditional decision-making approaches in modelling SES management. In this paper, we introduce a Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping approach to study the dynamic behaviour of managers’ systems of practices. As a case study, we aim to assess farmers’ forage management under different climatic scenarios. Results show that summer drought have varying consequences according to farmers’ systems of practices. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping approaches are particularly relevant in studying systems of practices in SES. Their utilisation is promising for the evaluation of adaptive capacity and resilience in SES at local scale (exploitation, community) and regional scale (ecological areas, country)